Current Biology
○ Elsevier BV
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Current Biology's content profile, based on 596 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.70% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Anderson, E.; Kist, A.; Simon, Z. D.; Raj, J.; Ray, S.; Astudillo, D.; Becker, N.; Norbu, T.; Khim, S.; Lambert, D.; Alvarez, J.; Kadlec, K.; Allawala, A. B.; Tremblay-McGaw, A.; Verhein, J.; Racine, C.; Naldec, P.; Alhourani, A.; Piper, K.; Fan, J.; Wang, D. D.; Khambhatti, A. N.; Sellers, K. K.; Starr, P. A.; Sugrue, L. P.; Chang, E. F.; Krystal, A. D.; Lee, A. M.
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Pathological activity within frontal cortical circuits is common in many neuropsychiatric disorders, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). We developed an invasive brain mapping protocol in which temporary electrodes are implanted in candidate sites to identify personalized stimulation targets that can acutely relieve OCD symptoms. We found that stimulation within segments of the anterior limb of the internal capsule (ALIC) focally suppressed the structurally and functionally connected region of prefrontal and cingulate cortex. By leveraging the topographic organization of the ALIC, we reversibly inactivated frontal cortical sites with ALIC stimulation to determine which cortical regions are necessary for sustaining OCD symptoms. Stimulation of ventral capsule (VC) near the globus pallidus within the ALIC was associated with suppression of lateral orbitofrontal cortex activity and acute and long-term improvements in OCD symptoms. These results provide a paradigm for leveraging ALIC topography to deliver targeted connectomic neuromodulation to frontal cortex to treat neuropsychiatric disorders.
Cavon, J.; Perez, C.; Quinn-Bohmann, N.; Magis, A. T.; Gibbons, S. M.
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Emerging evidence links the gut microbiome to sleep quality, yet measuring sleep at scale remains challenging. Commercial wearables, such as Fitbit, capture objective sleep and activity data in naturalistic settings. We integrated Fitbit data from a large, deeply-phenotyped cohort with paired lifestyle and health questionnaires. Wearable-derived measures aligned well with self-reported sleep, activity, and happiness. We identified dozens of covariate-adjusted associations between Fitbit-derived sleep features, lifestyle factors, and multi-omic data. Among molecular feature sets, the gut microbiome showed the greatest number of associations with sleep quality: butyrate-producing genera were positively associated with sleep and amplified the benefits of physical activity. Oscillospira, in particular, was consistently associated with better sleep. In blood, insulin, omega-3, and cortisol correlated with poorer sleep, whereas lower alcohol intake and mineral supplements correlated with better sleep. These robust, covariate-adjusted findings advance mechanistic understanding of the gut-sleep axis and broader molecular and lifestyle determinants of sleep quality.
Stewart, G.; Schroeder, M.; Mancy, R.; Angelopoulos, K.
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Large epidemics of invasive meningococcal disease are rare in temperate regions. Here, we analyse administrative data on the largely forgotten epidemic of bacterial meningococcal meningitis that occurred in Glasgow in 1907, probably the largest on record in the UK. The epidemic, predominantly confined to the city, killed around 1,000 people, had a case fatality rate of nearly 70%, and hit infants and young children the hardest. We show the rapid rise and fall in cases and the spatial distribution of incidence and mortality rates within the city. We find that within-household overcrowding was a key driver of incidence whereas between-household geographic proximity was not. We also find that the spatial distribution of disease risk during the epidemic persisted in the post-epidemic period and during a later outbreak. The findings suggest that interventions should prioritise populations in areas that have experienced higher incidence rates to mitigate the risk of future outbreaks.
Diaz-Fong, J. P.; Peel, H. J.; Zhang, K.; Qian, J.; Lewis, M.; Wong, W.-W.; Leuchter, A. F.; Tadayonnejad, R.; Voineskos, D.; Konstantinou, G.; Lam, E.; Blumberger, D. M.; Feusner, J. D.
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Background: Individuals with body dysmorphic disorder misperceive defects of their physical appearance. Current evidence suggests that visual processing abnormalities may underlie this core symptom. Separate pre-clinical studies testing perceptual and attentional interventions and non-invasive neuromodulation suggest that these visual processing abnormalities may be modifiable, but their combined effects on neural connectivity and perceptual processing remain unclear. Methods: Thirty-nine unmedicated men and women with body dysmorphic disorder or subclinical body dysmorphic disorder received intermittent theta burst stimulation and continuous theta burst stimulation targeting the lateral parietal cortex combined with a visual attention modification paradigm during functional magnetic resonance imaging, in a crossover design. Dynamic effective connectivity within dorsal and ventral visual stream pathways was calculated, and global visual processing biases were assessed using the face inversion effect before and after stimulation plus attention modification. Results: Intermittent theta burst stimulation resulted in increased connectivity in higher-level dorsal visual stream pathways during naturalistic viewing following attention modification, whereas continuous theta burst stimulation was associated with reduced connectivity in lower-level dorsal pathways and increased connectivity in ventral stream pathways. These changes were accompanied by differential effects on global visual processing, with stimulation type modulating the magnitude of the face inversion effect. Conclusions: Combined neuromodulation and visual attention modification modulate visual system connectivity and perceptual processing in individuals with body dysmorphic disorder symptoms. These findings support a mechanistic link between dorsal-ventral stream dynamics and perceptual biases. Integrating neuromodulation with perceptual retraining may represent a viable approach for targeting core symptoms of distorted appearance perception.
Escalera, M.; Lopez Ortiz, E.; Garcia Morales, C.; Cruz-Bonilla, E.; Guerrero Flores, S.; Weaver, S.; Matias Florentino, M.; Tapia Trejo, D.; Davila Conn, V.; Roberto Cardenas Porras, ; Eduardo Zarza Sanchez, ; Silvia del Arenal Sanchez, ; Jorge A Gutierrez Soto, ; Karina Nava Memije, ; Jessica Monreal Flores, ; Alejandro Guzman, ; Rebecca E Garcia Mendiola, ; Patricia Iracheta, ; Veronica Ruiz Gonzalez, ; Veronica Quiroz Morales, ; Israel Macias Gonzalez, ; Manuel A Becerril Rodriguez, ; Raul A Cruz Flores, ; Andrea Gonzalez Rodriguez, ; Dulce M Lopez Sanchez, ; Miroslava Card
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Understanding HIV transmission in densely populated urban settings is essential to mitigate ongoing epidemic spread. We present a comprehensive analysis of recent HIV transmission dynamics in Greater Mexico City, one of the worlds largest metropolitan areas comprising Mexico City and neighbouring municipalities of the State of Mexico. Drawing from over 7,000 complete pol gene sequences representing around 50% of new cases reported between 2019 and 2022 within the study region, we reconstructed the transmission network based on pairwise genetic distance. We identified ten large transmission clusters exhibiting sustained growth up to the most recent sampling period. We further analysed paired genetic and high- resolution human mobility data using an integrated phylogeographic approach. We observed a heterogeneous pattern of viral spread across the region, supported by an extensive mixing at a wider geographic scale. Across Greater Mexico City, displaying a high population density, HIV transmission is minimally spatially constrained, a pattern likely fuelled by intense human mobility. Thus, population movement weakens isolation by distance in large urban areas even for a chronic infection that is sexually and vertically transmitted. We demonstrate the value of integrating large-scale genetic, epidemiological, and mobility data to resolve contemporary HIV transmission dynamics in densely populated urban settings
Lee, S. S.-Y.; Wang, C. A.; de Vries, V. A.; van Hemert, D. J.; Schulze, A.; Brandl, C.; Aman, A. M.; Alonso-Caneiro, D.; Choquet, H.; Gorski, M.; Hammond, C. J.; Heid, I. M.; Hunter, M. L.; Hysi, P.; Jiang, C.; Jonas, J.; Klaver, C. C.; Kneepkens, S.; Konig, S.; Lingham, G.; Luber, C.; Melton, P. E.; Pennell, C. E.; Ramdas, W. D.; Read, S. A.; Schuster, A. K.; Wang, Y. X.; Zimmermann, M. E.; International Glaucoma Genetics Consortium, ; Khawaja, A. P.; Gharahkhani, P.; MacGregor, S.; Guggenheim, J. A.; Mackey, D. A.
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The choroid is critical for maintaining vision and implicated in several ocular diseases, being the sole source of nutrients and waste removal for the outer retina. Genetic discovery can help elucidate the pathways through which choroidal features influence disease risk. Our meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (n= 78,682 participants) identified 30 genomic regions, including 20 novel loci, associated with choroidal thickness. Findings suggest inflammatory and vascular processes drive choroidal thickness, with overlapping mechanisms shared with refractive error. Genome-wide independently significant SNPs accounted for 18.7% of the genetic variance in choroidal thickness. Mendelian randomisation analyses showed a causal effect of age-related macular degeneration on choroidal thickness, and suggest a bidirectional causal effect between choroidal thickness and primary angle-closure glaucoma. These findings provide insight into the shared genetic architecture and biological pathways linking choroidal thickness and related diseases.
Rodriguez, X.; Perez-Jimenez, J. G.; Alexander, L. W.; Lezcano-Coba, C.; Galue, J.; Juarez, Y.; Beltran, D.; Smith, D. R.; Kadir, M.; Ali, D. W.; Corrales, R.; Trujillo Rodriguez, L.; Valdiviezo, G. E.; Thomas, Q. K.; Cicalo, A.; Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Luquette, A. E.; Cameron Sayer, L.; Cer, R. Z.; Malagon, F.; Grajales, I. A.; Rivera, L. F.; Gonzalez-R, Z.; Antioco, J.; Walters-Valdes, E.; Meneghello-Ponce, N.; Vittor, A. Y.; Escobar-Lee, K.; Abouganem-Shaw, A.; Rodriguez, F.; Aguirre, E.; Loyola, S.; Tinoco, Y.; Moreno, B.; Chen-German, M.; Ampuero, S.; Gomez-Angelo, A.; Correa-Duarte, S.; Ace
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Oropouche virus (OROV) spread across the Americas in 2024, yet Panama Darien migration corridor saw no outbreak until nearly a year after Brazil January 2024 peak, raising two hypotheses: cryptic circulation masked by diagnostic gaps, or recent introduction under permissive climatic conditions. Here we resolve this paradox using integrated clinical, genomic, and climate-informed surveillance. Among 1,040 individuals tested, 43% were OROV-positive and showed a clinical signature distinct from co-circulating arboviruses, including headache more frequent than in dengue (RR 2.38, 95% CI 1.74-3.24). The household secondary attack rate was 56%, and waste burning independently predicted infection. Phylogeographic reconstruction identified a single recent introduction in October 2024 with no evidence of adaptive evolution, excluding prolonged cryptic persistence. Climate-informed models indicate broad outbreak susceptibility across Panama, with Bocas del Toro and Los Santos as the next highest-risk provinces. These findings identify a Central American foothold for OROV with potential for further northward spread.
Pawley, M.; Marwaha, S.; Perry, B. I.; Morales-Munoz, I.
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Background: Sleep debt and irregular sleep patterns are highly prevalent amongst adolescents. However, whether the absence of these sleep behaviours protects against subsequent depression remains unclear. Here, we examined the association of sleep debt, weekend catch-up sleep (WCS), and social jetlag (SJL) in adolescence with depression in young adulthood and identified underlying biopsychosocial mechanisms. Methods: Secondary data analyses were conducted using the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Bedtimes and wake-up times on school days and weekends (i.e., sleep duration) and sleep need were self-reported at 15 years. This was used to generate sleep debt (sleep need minus school day sleep duration), WCS (weekend sleep duration minus school day sleep duration), and SJL (absolute difference in the midpoint of sleep times between school days and weekends). Depression was assessed at 24 years with the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. Common mental health symptoms, biological, and school-related factors at 17 years were the mediators. Results: Logistic regression analyses revealed that greater WCS (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=0.90; 95% CI=0.84-0.97; p=0.004) and lower sleep debt (AOR=1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.03-1.18; p=0.005) at age 15 reduced the likelihood of depression at 24 years. Irritability at 17 years partially mediated the relationship between sleep debt and depression (bias-corrected estimate=0.003; 95% CI=0.002-0.004; p<0.001). Conclusions: Adolescents who experience less sleep debt (i.e., less discrepancies between their actual sleep and their perceived sleep need) and those who extend their sleep duration on weekends are at reduced risk for depression in young adulthood. These findings underscore the need for greater opportunities for adolescents to obtain more hours of sleep to protect them against later poor mental health outcomes, such as depression. Keywords: Sleep; longitudinal studies; depression; ALSPAC
Kline, M. C.; Helekal, D.; Oliveira Roster, K. I.; Grad, Y.
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The dynamics of sexually transmitted infections involve interconnected transmission networks, including men who have sex with men and heterosexual populations. Understanding the extent of bridging between these networks can inform surveillance, guide interventions, and aid in the interpretation of their impact, but methods for quantifying bridging have been lacking. Here, we addressed whether pathogen genomics tools, successfully used to reconstruct transmission in other contexts, could accurately infer sexual network bridging. Based on simulations of gonorrhea spread, we evaluated phylodynamic bridging metrics inferred by ancestral state reconstruction under a range of sampling schemes, from comprehensive to sparse. These metrics differentiated sexual network structures even with biased sampling schemes, but accuracy depended on the sampling scheme and density: phylodynamic bridging estimates using sequences from all detected infections for one network configuration were on average 6.9% above the true value, whereas estimates from 5% of infections in symptomatic men with many partners were on average >1000% above the true value. These results suggest routine overestimation of bridging from unadjusted inferences from genomics data and provide context for interpreting existing genomic surveillance data and targeted studies.
Zhou, G.; Williams, G.; Millner, M. T.; AlHirayban, R.; Alosaimi, W.; Fallatah, O.; Hart, A. J.; Malaikah, M.; Iftikhar, S.; Ahmad, H.; Roghanian, M.; Mustonen, V.; AlYami, R.; Banzhaf, M.; Moradigaravand, D.
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Background Bacterial fitness is shaped by interactions between genome variation and environmental context, yet how these interactions determine its predictability and heritability remains unclear. In the clinically important pathogens of Klebsiella pneumoniae, a leading cause of hospital-acquired infections, this question is particularly pressing. Despite extensive genomic characterization, we still lack a systematic understanding of how genome-wide variation translates into fitness across diverse environments in K. pneumoniae. Methods We filled this gap by profiling a systematic collection of 1,462 clinical K. pneumoniae isolates across 214 diverse environmental and pharmacological stress conditions using high-throughput chemical genomics. Fitness was quantified from colony growth and integrated with whole-genome sequencing data. Genome-wide association analyses identified genetic determinants of fitness, and machine learning models incorporating genomic features were used to predict fitness.Results Fitness exhibited a strongly environment-dependent genetic architecture, with modest but significant concordance between genetic background and phenotypic variation. Under antibiotic and stress-combination conditions, fitness was driven by discrete, high-effect determinants, including known resistance genes, resulting in stronger signals and improved predictability. In contrast, non-antibiotic environments showed more polygenic and distributed architectures with weaker associations. Genome-wide analyses identified both established and previously uncharacterized genes linked with fitness across conditions. Resistance and virulence determinants exhibited clear context-dependent trade-offs, conferring fitness advantages under selection but imposing costs in non-selective environments. Consistent with this, plasmid carriage showed environment- and genotype-dependent fitness effects, with benefits under antibiotic pressure and measurable costs otherwise. Genomic variant-based models for fitness prediction achieved moderate performance (Mean Spearman correlation ({rho}) = 0.36 (95% CI: 0.18-0.67) for predicted versus observed values in unseen data) across conditions, with improved accuracy under strong antibiotic selective pressures, and produced well-calibrated prediction intervals with high coverage. Despite strong population structure effect on predictions, models captured predictive gene and SNP biomarkers for fitness. Conclusion These findings highlight that bacterial fitness is an emergent property of genome-environment interactions rather than a fixed attribute of genotype. This work establishes a unified high-dimensional genotype-phenotype framework linking genomic variation to fitness across diverse conditions in a major pathogen, with broader implications for other pathogenic bacterial species.
Minoccheri, C.; Joo, P.; Hu, X.-S.; Affendi, H.; Elayyan, F.; Harville, A.; McDonald, N. J.; Botero, T.; DaSilva, A. F.
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Neuroimaging based pain decoding faces two underappreciated challenges: between subject variability that prevents classifiers from generalizing across patients, and within session cross validation designs that inflate reported accuracy by conflating within person and between person variance. Here we address both using portable functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) during pharmacologically verified local nerve anesthesia. Twentyfive patients with clinically painful teeth underwent 36 channel bilateral fNIRS during percussion before ("Pre") and after ("Post") local nerve anesthesia. In 13 block-success patients, a paired Pre versus Post comparison with healthy tooth control identified three temporal hemodynamic response function (HRF) features (late slope, mean first derivative, and baseline normalized amplitude) whose analgesia interaction effects (d = 0.63 to 0.79) exceeded that of raw general linear model (GLM) amplitude (d = 0.56), with a significant difference-in-differences interaction (p = 0.011). Per-patient calibration with these features yielded leave one subject out (LOSO) AUC = 0.68 to 0.76 for nonlinear classifiers (permutation p = 0.002), with HbO-specific feature selection achieving the best performance (RF AUC = 0.760); a healthy tooth negative control was non-significant. End to end deep learning on raw time series (CNN LSTM AUC = 0.719) was competitive with feature based classifiers, while linear models did not reach significance. Critically, head to head comparison of within-session CV and LOSO on the same data revealed mean inflation of +0.13 AUC across all model types, including deep learning, demonstrating that high within session accuracy alone does not establish subject-independent validity. Exploratory analyses suggested complementary roles for oxyhemoglobin (HbO; within patient analgesia detection) and deoxyhemoglobin (HbR; cross patient information), and that trial to trial response variability may complement amplitude for cross patient pain detection. These results show that per patient calibration with temporal HRF features supports subject independent analgesic-state detection under strict LOSO evaluation, and that within-session validation (standard in the fNIRS pain- decoding literature) can substantially overestimate performance.
Mosquera, J. V.; Tang, I.; Murach, M.; Auguste, G.; Kodali, A.; Hart, P.; Shaw, D. M.; Li, M.; Turner, A. W.; Hodonsky, C. J.; Dworak, N. M.; de Oliveira, A. K.; Sol-Church, K.; Jhee, T.; van der Sijs, K. I. M.; Adkar, S. S.; Choi, R. B.; Vacante, F.; Wu, J. C.; Cheng, P.; Giannarelli, C.; Leeper, N. J.; Finn, A. V.; Bjorkegren, J. L. M.; Kovacic, J. C.; Yurdagul, A.; van der Laan, S. W.; Miller, C. L.
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Advances in single-cell and spatial assays have revolutionized the scale and resolution of molecular tissue profiling. Here we present MetaPlaq, a multimodal atlas of human atherosclerotic arterial beds comprising over a million cells across single-cell transcriptomics, epigenomics and high-resolution spatial expression assays. We map granular cell states and disease-relevant transcriptional programs within the native tissue context of coronary arteries. Furthermore, we map cardiovascular GWAS signals to smooth muscle cells (SMCs) and endothelial cells (ECs) and uncover the cis-regulatory architecture governing their phenotypic transitions. Our comprehensive epigenomic reference allowed us to build cell-specific enhancer-gene link maps and multimodal gene regulatory networks (GRNs) underlying disease-relevant states such as osteogenic SMCs and ECs undergoing mesenchymal transition. We also integrate SMC and EC disease-associated gene sets with GRNs to nominate key transcription factors such as PRRX1, BNC2 and ELK3 regulating atherosclerosis-relevant transcriptional programs. Finally, we layer single-cell and spatial modalities to fine-map GWAS variants with improved cell and anatomical context. We highlight candidate cell-specific regulatory mechanisms at less characterized CAD loci, including FGD5 and MCF2L in ECs. Together, this atlas represents an important step towards fully interpreting genetic risk loci and informing new therapeutic strategies for cardiovascular disease.
Goodman, M. O.; Alex, R. M.; Sands, S. A.; Azarbarzin, A.; Batool-anwar, S.; Pavlova, M. K.; Epstein, L. J.; Redline, S.; Cade, B. E.
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Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with a wide range of comorbidities, but the extent to which these follow predictable, age-dependent patterns is not well understood. Identifying such patterns could provide insight into OSA heterogeneity and its links to physiological measures of OSA. We trained age-dependent topic models (ATM) on longitudinal electronic health records from 36,426 patients with OSA in the Mass General Brigham Biobank. ATM organizes incident diagnoses into distinct comorbidity "topics," whose age-specific disease loadings represent predictive patterns linking related diagnoses across the life course. We applied the trained model to compute individual-level topic scores in independent data: a cohort of 11,689 OSA cases and 22,695 matched controls, and a cohort of 6,220 patients with polysomnography (PSG)-derived physiological measures. We identified 19 distinct age-dependent comorbidity profiles, all significantly associated with OSA case status (FDR-adjusted p<0.05). Topics reflected recognizable clusters including metabolic, neuropsychiatric, and immune-mediated conditions, and several were distinguished by age-of-onset of key comorbidities, such as early- vs late-onset asthma. Seventeen of the 19 topics were significantly associated with at least one of 13 PSG-derived physiological measures, including associations between cardiometabolic topics and the apnea-hypopnea index, sleep apnea specific hypoxic burden, and respiratory event-specific heart rate burden. These findings indicate that age-dependent comorbidity patterns distinguish meaningful OSA subtypes with differing prognoses and endophenotype associations. ATM offers insight into complex OSA comorbidity and suggests that age-informed, topic-based stratification may improve individualized risk assessment, interpretation of PSG findings, and targeting of clinical interventions.
Mao, Y.; Lopman, B.; Koelle, K.; Lau, M. S.
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Accurate forecasting of seasonal influenza is critical for public health preparedness, and data-driven models are central to this effort. However, most approaches rely on aggregate indicators of influenza-like-illness (ILI), which can obscure heterogeneity and limit predictability at longer horizons. While subtype dynamics are well established, their role in data-driven forecasting remains incompletely understood. Here, we integrate subtype-resolved surveillance data into diverse data-driven frameworks using over a decade of U.S. surveillance records to evaluate and decompose predictive signal in influenza forecasting. Across pre- and post-COVID-19 periods, subtype-informed models consistently improve over baseline models trained on aggregate ILI alone, with the largest gains at longer horizons. Decomposition reveals a horizon-dependent reorganization of predictability: autoregressive persistence in recent aggregate incidence dominates at short horizons but declines with lead time, while predictive signal shifts toward subtype-derived structure. Within this structure, interaction-related features among co-circulating subtypes grow systematically with forecast horizon, indicating that longer-term predictability is driven increasingly by interaction structure rather than marginal subtype composition alone. Together, our results show that subtype information provides non-redundant predictive signal and extends the effective forecasting window of data-driven models. More broadly, our findings suggest that aggregation of heterogeneous subtype processes can obscure latent predictability, supporting subtype-resolved surveillance.
Nakano, T.; Onozuka, D.; Ikeda, Y.; Washiyama, K.; Takashima, Y.
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Background. On 8 May 2023 the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reclassified COVID-19 under the Infectious Disease Control Law from a designated infectious disease (with case-by-case reporting requirements comparable to those of a Category-2 disease) to a Category-5 ("Class-5") notifiable disease, joining the same category as seasonal influenza and most other endemic respiratory infections. Under this regime, COVID-19 case counts are reported weekly from a nationwide network of sentinel medical facilities (initially approximately 5,000, reduced to approximately 3,000 following an April 2025 surveillance reform), and individual case reporting is no longer required. We aimed to characterize the spatial topology of COVID-19 epidemics under this sentinel-surveillance regime and to detect, in a data-driven manner, any structural change in epidemic dynamics over this period. Methods. We analyzed weekly per-sentinel-facility COVID-19 case counts in all 47 prefectures of Japan from 2023-W17 to 2026-W19 (159 weeks). For each week we computed the Shannon pseudo-entropy S of the prefecture-share distribution and global, local, and time-lagged Moran's I across a 92-edge contiguity-based adjacency matrix. To identify any structural change in a data-driven manner, we adopted a two-stage approach motivated by an empirical regularity established in Section 3: we first verified the wave-amplitude-invariant entropy ceiling (S_max >= 3.80 in all five pre-transition waves), then restricted change-point detection to the weeks after S(t) last attained this ceiling, applying PELT, CUSUM, and Bai-Perron sup-F within this restricted region. Seasonal structure was characterized by truncated Fourier regression with first-order autoregressive errors (Cochrane-Orcutt) over harmonic orders K = 1 to 6; between-period comparisons used moving block bootstrap as the principal inferential statistic. Results. The five epidemic waves during 2023-2025 followed a stereotyped spatial template in which S(t) traced a characteristic U-shape around each peak, with a wave-amplitude-invariant entropy ceiling reaching on average 99.4% of the theoretical maximum ln 47 (range 3.820-3.836, SD 0.006). The last week in which S(t) attained this entropy ceiling was 2025-W42. Restricting change-point detection to the 29 subsequent weeks, PELT and CUSUM localised the structural break to late 2025: PELT identified 2025-W48 (robust across penalty values >= sigma^2*ln(n) and across entropy-ceiling thresholds 3.78-3.82) and CUSUM peaked at 2025-W50 (p < 0.0001), placing the break within a two-week window centred on late November 2025. Bai-Perron sup-F peaked later at 2026-W02 (p = 0.062, with reduced power on n = 29). We adopted 2025-W48 as the principal change-point, defining 135 pre-transition weeks and 24 post-transition weeks. Two anti-phase spatial modes were identified in the pre-transition record: a summer-onset Okinawa-seeded Kyushu cascade (Mode A; annual peak epi week 26) and a winter-onset Tohoku-centred connected-cluster mode (Mode B; annual peak epi week 51), approximately 25 epi weeks out of phase. After the regime transition, this ceiling was not attained, and the spatial-persistence ratio I(tau = 8 wk)/I(0) shifted from a highly variable distribution centred near 0.27 (pre-transition, 125 weeks) to a tightly clustered distribution around 0.89 (post-transition, 24 weeks); the mean difference was 0.62 (95% bootstrap CI 0.32 to 0.90; moving block bootstrap p < 0.0001 across block lengths 1-12). The principal finding remained significant under autoregressive-augmented null models and was robust to adjacency-matrix choice, the April 2025 surveillance reform, harmonic order K = 1 to 6, and Okinawa exclusion. Conclusions. Data-driven analysis of 159 weeks of Japanese sentinel surveillance identifies a candidate spatial-persistence regime transition emerging in late November 2025, in which the spatial structure of weekly case shares persists for at least 8 weeks rather than dissipating as in pre-transition. The transition coincides with loss of the wave-amplitude-invariant entropy ceiling and with absence of the Mode A signature through the observed post-transition period. The recent uptick in Okinawa case shares (continuing through 2026-W19) leaves open whether the Mode A signature is structurally suppressed or merely deferred; observation through summer 2026 is required to distinguish a sustained shift from a transient anomaly.
Bonilla, K.; Sherman, V. M.; Arbaiza, A. S.; Dougherty, M.; Olson, L. E.
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In some countries, melatonin is sold without a physician prescription and dosage is unregulated. Transdermal products have become popular including those marketed for children. We measured consumer assumptions about these products among adult residents of the United States, analyzed lot-to-lot variability, and compared the pharmacokinetics of melatonin administered in oral, lotion, and bath product forms. Survey respondents (n=199) believed oral melatonin was more effective than transdermal products and that all melatonin products were relatively safe. Melatonin lotion products analyzed by HPLC displayed lot-to-lot variability as well as changes in formulation and product claims. To determine pharmacokinetics, three different treatments (oral tablets, lotion, and bath immersion) were administered to twelve undergraduate participants in a randomized, crossover design. Five additional participants completed bath product treatment only. Participants collected saliva samples up to 48 hours after administration, which were analyzed for melatonin by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Oral (n=11) and lotion formulations (n=12) caused maximum salivary melatonin levels within 30 minutes after administration, but bath immersion did not cause increases in saliva melatonin (n=17). The half-life of oral melatonin was 1.17 [0.69 -- 1.65] hours versus 5.72 [3.75 -- 7.68] hours for lotion treatment (p = 0.011, effect size r = 0.770). Melatonin lotion may pose a risk to consumers who assume it is safe and less effective than oral tablets, when in fact it may be very potent and remain at high physiological levels into the following day. This study is registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT06382610) and was funded by the Sleep Research Society.
Goulet, N.; Lyndon, S.; Beauregard, N.; McInnis, K.; Mauger, J.-F.; Doucet, E.; Imbeault, P.
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Introduction: Menstrual cycle phase has been proposed as a source of intra-individual variability in resting energy expenditure and the thermic effect of food in premenopausal females, yet studies examining the thermic effect of food across menstrual cycle phases report conflicting findings. Methods: This protocol describes a secondary analysis of prespecified outcomes from a non-randomized, two-period crossover trial primarily designed to assess postprandial plasma triglyceride concentrations across menstrual cycle phases (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT07459465) in 12 premenopausal females aged 18-30 years, free of chronic disease and hormonal contraceptive use, recruited in Ottawa, Canada. Participants complete two experimental sessions: one in the early follicular phase and one in the mid-luteal phase, each involving consumption of a high-fat meal. Eleven secondary outcomes will be reported: fasting resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, respiratory exchange ratio, carbohydrate oxidation rate, lipid oxidation rate, desire to eat, hunger, fullness, prospective food consumption, serum beta-estradiol, and serum progesterone. Masked outcome analyses are performed using linear mixed-effects models. Results: Recruitment began on 26 March 2026; results will be reported in the Stage 2 manuscript. Discussion: Findings from this trial may help clarify whether menstrual cycle phase constitutes a meaningful source of intra-individual variability in energy metabolism, with implications for the design of metabolic research in premenopausal females.
Syvalahti, T.; Tokariev, M.; Nevalainen, P.; Tuiskula, A.; Metsaranta, M.; Haataja, L.; Vanhatalo, S.; Tokariev, A.
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Abstract Background Prediction of long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes remains challenging after perinatal asphyxia. Here, we studied whether computational metrics of brain function derived from neonatal EEG are associated with long-term neurodevelopment in infants with perinatal asphyxia. Methods Total of 36 term-born infants with perinatal asphyxia with or without hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy were studied with neonatal multichannel electroencephalography (EEG). We computed local EEG amplitudes and phase-amplitude coupling (PAC), as well as large-scale functional cortical networks estimated using amplitude-amplitude correlations (AAC) and phase-phase correlations (PPC). These EEG-derived markers were tested for associations with neurodevelopmental outcomes at two years, assessed using the Griffiths Scales of Child Development, 3rd edition (GMDS-III). Results EEG amplitudes showed positive associations with GMDS-III Foundations of Learning and General Development scores across most electrodes during quiet sleep, with the strongest effects observed at frontal and central regions (r = 0.44-0.66). PAC showed negative associations with the same scores mainly over parietal and temporal regions (r = -0.45 to -0.55). Cortical AAC networks demonstrated the most robust and widespread negative associations in all frequency bands during quiet sleep (r = -0.47 to -0.54), with 70-72% of connections significant in high delta frequency. In turn, PPC networks showed frequency-selective and more spatially constrained negative associations during quiet sleep (r = -0.48 to -0.53), involving 5-12% of the network. Conclusions Both local and network-based metrics in the newborn brain show significant association with neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years after perinatal asphyxia.
Kocsis, Z.; Calmus, R. M.; Kasa, J.; Berger, J. I.; Rhone, A.; Brown, G.; Diefelt-Streese, C.; Bowren, M.; Taylor, P. N.; Sarrett, M. E.; Choi, I.; McMurray, B.; Kawasaki, H.; Griffiths, T. D.; Howard, M. A.; Petkov, C. I.
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There is substantial interest in understanding neurological impact and recovery over time, but there is a dearth of longitudinal assessment extending from minutes to months surrounding neural system impact. We compared rare intraoperative recordings in three patients, obtained immediately before and after anterior temporal lobe (ATL) resection during a semantic prediction task, with longitudinal source-localized electroencephalography (EEG) obtained 2-6 weeks before and 2 and 6-14 months after surgery. Relative to controls (n = 20), task performance showed sustained impairment in the two left-hemisphere patients and delayed impact in the right-hemisphere patient. Consistent with theory on ipsilateral and contralateral hemisphere compensation, all three patients exhibited bilateral EEG alterations in speech responses and effective connectivity that did not recover to pre-operative levels. Direct comparison of the datasets for intrinsic neurophysiological biomarkers associated with timescales of processing ({tau}INT) and excitatory-inhibitory balance (aperiodic slope, {chi}SPEC) showed a striking months-long reduction in rapid timescale processing and gradually increasing aperiodic slope (e.g., putatively increased cortical inhibition) in the ipsilateral hemisphere of all three patients. Amidst these neurophysiological alterations, task performance did not return to pre-operative levels. These rare longitudinal patient data advance a framework to broadly evaluate neurological impact over multiple timeframes.
Faghih, M.; Damm, M.; Kassik, M.-T.; Cheesman, L.; Rauschenberg, S.; Olesen, S. S.; Laheru, D. A.; Zheng, L.; Phillips, A. E.; Yadav, D.; Drewes, A. M.; Rosendahl, J.; Singh, V. K.; International Pancreatic Pain Consortium,
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Pain in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is associated with poor survival, but whether altered pain processing carries prognostic significance is unknown. We analyzed a prospective cohort of 143 patients with PDAC who underwent pancreatic quantitative sensory testing (PQST) after diagnosis. Patients were classified as having normal pain processing (n=84), segmental hyperalgesia (n=30), or widespread hyperalgesia (n=29). Survival was measured from the date of P-QST assessment. During follow-up, 70 deaths occurred. Widespread hyperalgesia was associated with increased mortality in unadjusted Cox analysis (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.14,3.35) and after adjustment for age, sex, tumor stage, comorbidity, opioid treatment, and body mass index (adjusted HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.30,4.15). Segmental hyperalgesia was not associated with mortality. Kaplan Meier analysis demonstrated lower survival probability in the widespread hyperalgesia group (log rank p=0.025). These findings suggest that widespread hyperalgesia, reflecting altered central pain processing, identifies a subgroup of PDAC patients at increased risk of mortality independent of conventional clinical factors.